Kentucky’s mandatory risk-assessment policy changed bail practice but its effects eroded over time; separate working-paper evidence indicates that departures toward harsher conditions were more common for Black defendants.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD05-HQ-C05 (v1.1)

Provenance and status

Claim type: Fact
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with a qualifier
Verification state: Checked against the primary source. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: Universal claim that risk assessment worsens racial disparity
Limitations: Exact override proportions/magnitudes remain HOLD
What this line marks HOLD was not cleared for public use, so this site does not give it. Check the original source.
Source (as cited): Stevenson, “Assessing Risk Assessment in Action,” Minnesota Law Review 103; Albright, “If You Give a Judge a Risk Score,” 2019 working paper
Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article, Working paper (recorded as “Peer-reviewed law/economics article + working paper”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity of the evidence: Rapidly maturing evidence
Recorded date: 13 October 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Stevenson, “Assessing Risk Assessment in Action,” Minnesota Law Review 103 (2018) (Peer-reviewed journal article)
Read the original
Albright, “If You Give a Judge a Risk Score: Evidence from Kentucky Bail Decisions,” Harvard John M. Olin Fellows’ Discussion Paper 85 (2019) (Working paper)
No checked link to the original yet.

Version

This page shows version v1.1. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions: v1.0, v1.1 · current

What changed in this version

This version supersedes version v1.0 (LD05-HQ-C05--v1.0), which stays available with its record unchanged.

Changed fields: 2 PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM; 25 RECORDED DATE
What changed: The public-facing claim now says that the racial-disparity result comes from working-paper evidence ("separate working-paper evidence" instead of "separate evidence"). The Kentucky erosion result and both sources are unchanged.
Why: A claim check on 13 October 2026 found that version 1.0 dropped the working-paper qualifier that the HQ cross-batch synthesis cleared for this claim ("separate working-paper evidence"); the HQ notes say the 2019 Albright paper is a working paper and must not be given the same maturity as Stevenson 2018. The check and this revision were done by AI agents against the HQ notes, not by a person.

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): FACT (as printed: “FACT”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE, WORKING_PAPER
Maturity (coded): RAPIDLY_MATURING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD05-HQ-C05	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Kentucky’s mandatory risk-assessment policy changed bail practice but its effects eroded over time; separate working-paper evidence indicates that departures toward harsher conditions were more common for Black defendants.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	FACT	base_types: FACT
4	RESEARCH STRAND	B/F	—
5	MATURITY	RAPIDLY MATURING	states: RAPIDLY_MATURING
6	SOURCE	Stevenson, “Assessing Risk Assessment in Action,” Minnesota Law Review 103; Albright, “If You Give a Judge a Risk Score,” 2019 working paper	source_ids: SRC-LD05-STEVENSON-MINNESOTA-LAW-REVIEW-2018, SRC-LD05-ALBRIGHT-RISK-SCORE-2019
7	SOURCE TYPE	Peer-reviewed law/economics article + working paper	classes: PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE, WORKING_PAPER
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	Kentucky pretrial bail	—
10	DESIGN	Quasi-experimental / observational	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	>1 million cases in Stevenson; case-level Kentucky data in Albright	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Kentucky pretrial risk/default system	—
13	COMPARATOR	Pre-policy practice / same-score defendants	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Initial practice change eroded; harsher override direction differed by race	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Durability and distribution of algorithmic constraint	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Universal claim that risk assessment worsens racial disparity	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Exact override proportions/magnitudes remain HOLD	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Allegheny shows opposite fairness direction for human departure	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US/English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Black defendants exposed to harsher departures in working-paper evidence	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D5, D4a, L-A, L-C	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Peer-reviewed update reversing the direction	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-13	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D5 (DOMAIN); D4a (SUB_AREA); L-A (LENS); L-C (LENS)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Stevenson, “Assessing Risk Assessment in Action,” Minnesota Law Review 103” → Stevenson (2018), “Assessing Risk Assessment in Action” (SRC-LD05-STEVENSON-MINNESOTA-LAW-REVIEW-2018--v1.0) — Stevenson, “Assessing Risk Assessment in Action,” Minnesota Law Review 103 (2018); class PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (explicit public provenance pin)
“Albright, “If You Give a Judge a Risk Score,” 2019 working paper” → Albright (2019), “If You Give a Judge a Risk Score…” (SRC-LD05-ALBRIGHT-RISK-SCORE-2019--v1.0) — Albright, “If You Give a Judge a Risk Score: Evidence from Kentucky Bail Decisions,” Harvard John M. Olin Fellows’ Discussion Paper 85 (2019); class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, October 13). Kentucky’s mandatory risk-assessment policy changed bail practice but its effects eroded over time; separate working-paper evidence indicates that departures toward harsher conditions were more common for Black defendants [Claim LD05-HQ-C05, version v1.1]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld05-hq-c05/v1.1/

@misc{sociolens_ld05_hq_c05_v1_1,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {Kentucky’s mandatory risk-assessment policy changed bail practice but its effects eroded over time; separate working-paper evidence indicates that departures toward harsher conditions were more common for Black defendants.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-10-13},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld05-hq-c05/v1.1/}},
  note = {Claim LD05-HQ-C05, version v1.1}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 af7cc8a452ae8041ad5c89317e3c68a331484e5a725166c1f8ffc91ecc3b856a.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim revision — LD05-HQ-C05 v1.1 (v1.1) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-13; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and docs/PROJECT.md "Research revisions" (a published claim changes only through a new version that states what changed and why). Block “ENTRY 05 — LD05-HQ-C05” SHA-256 6aad34c70c7fc25d5d6ade83d3ede6e692ea66380e369e4c288079a87ae36a68; fixture fixtures/authored/claim-revisions/LD05-HQ-C05--v1.1.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.1 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored revision fixture version (SocioLens claim revision — LD05-HQ-C05 v1.1); a new version of LD05-HQ-C05 v1.0, which stays routable (AGENTS.md research integrity rule 3)
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored revision "SocioLens claim revision — LD05-HQ-C05 v1.1" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-13); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and docs/PROJECT.md "Research revisions" (a published claim changes only through a new version that states what changed and why)
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD05-STEVENSON-MINNESOTA-LAW-REVIEW-2018--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 05 — LD05-HQ-C05 cites "Stevenson, “Assessing Risk Assessment in Action,” Minnesota Law Review 103"; the first field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block; the same Source record LD05-HQ-C05 v1.0 cites.
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD05-ALBRIGHT-RISK-SCORE-2019--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 05 — LD05-HQ-C05 cites "Albright, “If You Give a Judge a Risk Score,” 2019 working paper"; the second field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block; the same Source record LD05-HQ-C05 v1.0 cites.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD05-STEVENSON-MINNESOTA-LAW-REVIEW-2018--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Stevenson, “Assessing Risk Assessment in Action,” Minnesota Law Review 103".
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD05-ALBRIGHT-RISK-SCORE-2019--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Albright, “If You Give a Judge a Risk Score,” 2019 working paper".