Epoch AI's September 2026 multi-benchmark analysis estimates that the price of reaching fixed LLM capability levels has fallen about 13× per year since 2023.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD11-HQ-C15 (v1.0)

Epoch AI's September 2026 multi-benchmark analysis estimates that the price of reaching fixed LLM capability levels has fallen about 13× per year since 2023.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Estimate
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with a qualifier
Verification state: Checked against the primary source. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: Falling total AI bills, training costs, accelerator prices, or competition as sole cause
Limitations: Benchmark/list-price methodology; transaction prices can differ
Source (as cited): Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026
Source type: Independent research report (recorded as “Independent research analysis”)
Institutional position: Independent research nonprofit
Maturity of the evidence: Rapidly maturing evidence
Recorded date: 25 September 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026 (Independent research report)
Read the original

Version

This page shows version v1.0. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions: v1.0 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT
Maturity (coded): RAPIDLY_MATURING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD11-HQ-C15	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Epoch AI's September 2026 multi-benchmark analysis estimates that the price of reaching fixed LLM capability levels has fallen about 13× per year since 2023.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Foundation-model market structure	—
5	MATURITY	RAPIDLY MATURING	states: RAPIDLY_MATURING
6	SOURCE	Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026	source_ids: SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09
7	SOURCE TYPE	Independent research analysis	classes: INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent research nonprofit	—
9	SCOPE	Five benchmark fixed-capability price series; 2023–2026	—
10	DESIGN	Benchmark-price synthesis	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Five primary benchmarks	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Multiple models	—
13	COMPARATOR	Earlier model prices	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Estimated 47% decline per quarter, about 13× per year	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Rapid fixed-capability inference-price decline	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Falling total AI bills, training costs, accelerator prices, or competition as sole cause	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Benchmark/list-price methodology; transaction prices can differ	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Earlier 9×–900× threshold-specific estimates show heterogeneity	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Global API market / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Cheaper capability can broaden access; incidence not measured	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D1, LD-11	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Sustained price reversal or revised benchmark methodology	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026” → Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026 (SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09--v1.0) — Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026; class INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Concentration, Stack & Sovereignty (v0.1) LD-11

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, September 25). Epoch AI's September 2026 multi-benchmark analysis estimates that the price of reaching fixed LLM capability levels has fallen about 13× per year since 2023 [Claim LD11-HQ-C15, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld11-hq-c15/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld11_hq_c15_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {Epoch AI's September 2026 multi-benchmark analysis estimates that the price of reaching fixed LLM capability levels has fallen about 13× per year since 2023.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-09-25},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld11-hq-c15/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD11-HQ-C15, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 fa6b0f86c94a0e9b18a55f5a7791853d131c3aa190d458b9f44d93084243cce2.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1Ff_IzUBMpax35rKovu0vxXr1WTtpfCDP; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 15 — LD11-HQ-C15 ” SHA-256 d07cd3066e89e46323115c068107e7341f067924e7010c4e9ad75eacc15e6244; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r06-ld11-claim-ledger-v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 15 — LD11-HQ-C15 cites "Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §4; ledger C15 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §4; ledger C15 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.