OpenRouter and a16z report that open-weight models reached approximately one-third of token usage on OpenRouter by late 2025.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD11-HQ-C14 (v1.0)

This is an older version. Read the current version, v1.1, or what changed in it.

OpenRouter and a16z report that open-weight models reached approximately one-third of token usage on OpenRouter by late 2025.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Estimate
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with a qualifier
Verification state: Checked against the primary source. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: Global model share, enterprise production share or infrastructure independence
Limitations: Single platform; developer/cost-sensitive selection; positioned source
Source (as cited): OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study
Source type: Preprint (recorded as “Platform telemetry / preprint”)
Institutional position: Platform + investor
Maturity of the evidence: Emerging evidence
Recorded date: 25 September 2026
Currentness / correction: This is not the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study (Preprint)
Read the original

Version

This page shows version v1.0. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

NEWER VERSION EXISTS: read the current version, v1.1 (LD11-HQ-C14--v1.1). This version is explicitly superseded by LD11-HQ-C14--v1.1.

Versions: v1.0, v1.1 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): PREPRINT
Maturity (coded): EMERGING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD11-HQ-C14	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	OpenRouter and a16z report that open-weight models reached approximately one-third of token usage on OpenRouter by late 2025.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Foundation-model market structure	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study	source_ids: SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY
7	SOURCE TYPE	Platform telemetry / preprint	classes: PREPRINT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Platform + investor	—
9	SCOPE	OpenRouter routed tokens; global platform traffic; 2024–2025	—
10	DESIGN	Observational telemetry	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	100+ trillion tokens	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Multiple open/proprietary models	—
13	COMPARATOR	Proprietary models	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Open weights reached ~one-third of weekly token volume by late 2025	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Model-vendor counterpower on a large developer-oriented platform	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Global model share, enterprise production share or infrastructure independence	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Single platform; developer/cost-sensitive selection; positioned source	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Menlo enterprise open-source measure is a different population	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Global platform / English-dominant	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Lower-cost/open-weight choices expand developer options	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D1, L-B, R-2, LD-11	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Independent multi-platform telemetry	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); L-B (LENS); R-2 (LENS); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study” → OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study (SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY--v1.0) — OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study; class PREPRINT (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Concentration, Stack & Sovereignty (v0.1) LD-11

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, September 25). OpenRouter and a16z report that open-weight models reached approximately one-third of token usage on OpenRouter by late 2025 [Claim LD11-HQ-C14, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld11-hq-c14/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld11_hq_c14_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {OpenRouter and a16z report that open-weight models reached approximately one-third of token usage on OpenRouter by late 2025.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-09-25},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld11-hq-c14/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD11-HQ-C14, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 c4abfd3a2e4d27ceb50e4504e0cab758cf62dea48b5272972092ca1b4ced09b9.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1Ff_IzUBMpax35rKovu0vxXr1WTtpfCDP; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 14 — LD11-HQ-C14 ” SHA-256 06ae8a623e0bbd7fba354463ad3bc034a2d8d8936557d3d9ee02bd8001ac0961; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r06-ld11-claim-ledger-v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
CURRENT_POINTER = false — basis: not current: superseded by LD11-HQ-C14--v1.1 (manifest supersedes relation)
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 14 — LD11-HQ-C14 cites "OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §3; ledger C14 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §3; ledger C14 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.