Menlo Ventures estimated late-2025 enterprise LLM API shares of Anthropic 40%, OpenAI 27% and Google 21%, compared with OpenAI 50% and Anthropic 12% in 2023.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD11-HQ-C13 (v1.0)

Menlo Ventures estimated late-2025 enterprise LLM API shares of Anthropic 40%, OpenAI 27% and Google 21%, compared with OpenAI 50% and Anthropic 12% in 2023.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Estimate
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with a qualifier
Verification state: Checked against the primary source. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: Audited provider revenue share, consumer share or global market share
Limitations: Investor conflict; weighted/modelled estimate; U.S.-only sample
Source (as cited): Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise
Source type: Survey (recorded as “Investor survey/report”)
Institutional position: Venture investor; Anthropic portfolio company
Maturity of the evidence: Contested evidence
Recorded date: 25 September 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise (Survey)
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Version

This page shows version v1.0. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions: v1.0 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): SURVEY
Maturity (coded): CONTESTED

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD11-HQ-C13	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Menlo Ventures estimated late-2025 enterprise LLM API shares of Anthropic 40%, OpenAI 27% and Google 21%, compared with OpenAI 50% and Anthropic 12% in 2023.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Foundation-model market structure	—
5	MATURITY	CONTESTED	states: CONTESTED
6	SOURCE	Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise	source_ids: SRC-LD11-MENLO-STATE-OF-GENAI-ENTERPRISE-2025
7	SOURCE TYPE	Investor survey/report	classes: SURVEY
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Venture investor; Anthropic portfolio company	—
9	SCOPE	U.S. enterprise production API usage/spend model; Nov–Dec 2025	—
10	DESIGN	Survey + market-sizing model	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	495 U.S. enterprise AI decision-makers	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Multiple LLM families	—
13	COMPARATOR	2023 estimates	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Large estimated leadership reversal within two years	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Contestability in one enterprise usage/spend measure	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Audited provider revenue share, consumer share or global market share	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Investor conflict; weighted/modelled estimate; U.S.-only sample	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Other usage metrics rank providers differently	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Enterprise buyers appear able to shift new workloads among providers	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D1, R-1, LD-11	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Audited revenue or independent replicated enterprise survey	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); R-1 (LENS); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise” → Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the… (SRC-LD11-MENLO-STATE-OF-GENAI-ENTERPRISE-2025--v1.0) — Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise; class SURVEY (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Concentration, Stack & Sovereignty (v0.1) LD-11

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, September 25). Menlo Ventures estimated late-2025 enterprise LLM API shares of Anthropic 40%, OpenAI 27% and Google 21%, compared with OpenAI 50% and Anthropic 12% in 2023 [Claim LD11-HQ-C13, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld11-hq-c13/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld11_hq_c13_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {Menlo Ventures estimated late-2025 enterprise LLM API shares of Anthropic 40\%, OpenAI 27\% and Google 21\%, compared with OpenAI 50\% and Anthropic 12\% in 2023.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-09-25},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld11-hq-c13/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD11-HQ-C13, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 9e2edc338044aee5e786c8d5c7664c52ade16bdd7fb43722b4c59b51bf67edc1.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

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Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-MENLO-STATE-OF-GENAI-ENTERPRISE-2025--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 13 — LD11-HQ-C13 cites "Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §2; ledger C13 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
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