Counterpoint estimated Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares of SK hynix 50%, Samsung 33% and Micron 18%.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD11-HQ-C04 (v1.0)

Counterpoint estimated Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares of SK hynix 50%, Samsung 33% and Micron 18%.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Estimate
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with a qualifier
Verification state: Checked against the primary source. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: Falling overall concentration or treating revenue and shipment shares as one estimand
Limitations: Commercial estimate; rounded shares sum to 101%
Source (as cited): Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026
Source type: Commercial market research (recorded as “Commercial market intelligence”)
Institutional position: Commercial
Maturity of the evidence: Rapidly maturing evidence
Recorded date: 25 September 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026 (Commercial market research)
No checked link to the original yet.

Version

This page shows version v1.0. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions: v1.0 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): COMMERCIAL_MARKET_INTELLIGENCE
Maturity (coded): RAPIDLY_MATURING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD11-HQ-C04	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Counterpoint estimated Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares of SK hynix 50%, Samsung 33% and Micron 18%.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	A — Semiconductor bottlenecks	—
5	MATURITY	RAPIDLY MATURING	states: RAPIDLY_MATURING
6	SOURCE	Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026	source_ids: SRC-LD11-COUNTERPOINT-DRAM-HBM-SHARE-2026-09
7	SOURCE TYPE	Commercial market intelligence	classes: COMMERCIAL_MARKET_INTELLIGENCE
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Commercial	—
9	SCOPE	HBM revenue; global; Q2 2026	—
10	DESIGN	Market tracking	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Vendor HBM revenue estimates	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	n.a.	—
13	COMPARATOR	SK hynix 64% one year earlier	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Three-supplier market with substantial share movement inside the oligopoly	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Concentrated memory supply with internal contestability	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Falling overall concentration or treating revenue and shipment shares as one estimand	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Commercial estimate; rounded shares sum to 101%	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Shipment-share series are different estimands	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Korea / US / global / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Accelerator developers depend on a small qualified supplier set	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D1, L-B, LD-11	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Volume entry by another HBM supplier	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); L-B (LENS); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026” → Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share… (SRC-LD11-COUNTERPOINT-DRAM-HBM-SHARE-2026-09--v1.0) — Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026; class COMMERCIAL_MARKET_INTELLIGENCE (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Concentration, Stack & Sovereignty (v0.1) LD-11

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, September 25). Counterpoint estimated Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares of SK hynix 50%, Samsung 33% and Micron 18% [Claim LD11-HQ-C04, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld11-hq-c04/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld11_hq_c04_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {Counterpoint estimated Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares of SK hynix 50\%, Samsung 33\% and Micron 18\%.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-09-25},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld11-hq-c04/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD11-HQ-C04, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 3f585be7d24129c5b4bc803a8860f7a59681d95045638343f4e3073824a68880.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1Ff_IzUBMpax35rKovu0vxXr1WTtpfCDP; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 04 — LD11-HQ-C04 ” SHA-256 31b4ad92bce4ea4b57f0c188f7ea85c59d4458f50ce8a72eeb923283ace6924f; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r06-ld11-claim-ledger-v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-COUNTERPOINT-DRAM-HBM-SHARE-2026-09--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 04 — LD11-HQ-C04 cites "Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): Batch 01 §3; ledger C04 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD11-COUNTERPOINT-DRAM-HBM-SHARE-2026-09--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): Batch 01 §3; ledger C04 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.