A task-based macroeconomic model projects that AI will raise US total factor productivity by no more than 0.66% over ten years, and by less than 0.53% once harder-to-learn tasks are accounted for.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD03-SL-C17 (v1.0)

A task-based macroeconomic model projects that AI will raise US total factor productivity by no more than 0.66% over ten years, and by less than 0.53% once harder-to-learn tasks are accounted for.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Interpretation
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with a qualifier
Verification state: Checked against the abstract of the primary source only. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: An observed outcome; gains from new tasks or reorganization
Limitations: A model projection that depends on its exposure and cost-saving inputs; checked against the abstract of the published article (Crossref) and the NBER abstract on 15 October 2026; an April 2024 draft gave a different figure
Source (as cited): Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” Economic Policy 40(121), 2025
Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article (recorded as “Peer-reviewed journal article”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity of the evidence: Contested evidence
Recorded date: 15 October 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” Economic Policy 40(121), 2025 (Peer-reviewed journal article)
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Version

This is the current version, v1.0. Earlier versions stay available, and their records never change.

Versions: v1.0 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): INTERPRETATION (as printed: “INTERPRETATION”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (ABSTRACT_ONLY)
Source type (coded): PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE
Maturity (coded): CONTESTED

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD03-SL-C17	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	A task-based macroeconomic model projects that AI will raise US total factor productivity by no more than 0.66% over ten years, and by less than 0.53% once harder-to-learn tasks are accounted for.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	INTERPRETATION	base_types: INTERPRETATION
4	RESEARCH STRAND	D — Aggregate estimates and theory	—
5	MATURITY	CONTESTED	states: CONTESTED
6	SOURCE	Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” Economic Policy 40(121), 2025	source_ids: SRC-SL-ACEMOGLU-ECONOMIC-POLICY-2025
7	SOURCE TYPE	Peer-reviewed journal article	classes: PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	US economy; ten-year horizon	—
10	DESIGN	Calibrated task-based model (Hulten's theorem) using exposure and cost-saving estimates	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Published exposure and experimental estimates	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	AI in general	—
13	COMPARATOR	No-AI baseline	—
14	MAIN RESULT	TFP gain ≤0.66% over ten years; <0.53% allowing for hard-to-learn tasks	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	The likely aggregate productivity ceiling given current task-level evidence	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	An observed outcome; gains from new tasks or reorganization	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: ABSTRACT_ONLY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	A model projection that depends on its exposure and cost-saving inputs; checked against the abstract of the published article (Crossref) and the NBER abstract on 15 October 2026; an April 2024 draft gave a different figure	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Close to survey-based aggregation of time savings; contrasts with the J-curve view that early measured gains understate	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	The author predicts a widening gap between capital and labour income	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	LD-03, D2	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Evidence that AI creates new tasks or complementarities the model excludes	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-15	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-03 (LIVING_DEBATE); D2 (DOMAIN)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” Economic Policy 40(121), 2025” → Acemoglu (2025), “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (SRC-SL-ACEMOGLU-ECONOMIC-POLICY-2025--v1.0) — Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” Economic Policy 40(121), 2025; class PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Organizational absorption: Why micro gains do not become macro outcomes (v0.1) LD-03

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, October 15). A task-based macroeconomic model projects that AI will raise US total factor productivity by no more than 0.66% over ten years, and by less than 0.53% once harder-to-learn tasks are accounted for [Claim LD03-SL-C17, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld03-sl-c17/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld03_sl_c17_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {A task-based macroeconomic model projects that AI will raise US total factor productivity by no more than 0.66\% over ten years, and by less than 0.53\% once harder-to-learn tasks are accounted for.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-10-15},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld03-sl-c17/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD03-SL-C17, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 120ab6faf29dd0eed73b1c4a5217fc42a03cf8aaaa35689159456ccbae514ae1.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim — LD03-SL-C17 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-15; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-03 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-03 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 17 — LD03-SL-C17” SHA-256 24f718ef68ef4b60d067c28f6162173ad12b81a412959cc21b89c00e014840af; fixture fixtures/authored/claims/LD03-SL-C17--v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD03-SL-C17 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-03 debate
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD03-SL-C17 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-15); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-03 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-03 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-ACEMOGLU-ECONOMIC-POLICY-2025--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 17 — LD03-SL-C17 cites "Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” Economic Policy 40(121), 2025"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-ACEMOGLU-ECONOMIC-POLICY-2025--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” Economic Policy 40(121), 2025".