In 11 AI-exposed Danish occupations, Humlum and Vestergaard estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours two years after ChatGPT, ruling out effects larger than 2%.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD02-HQ-C02 (v1.0)

This is an older version. Read the current version, v1.1, or what changed in it.

In 11 AI-exposed Danish occupations, Humlum and Vestergaard estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours two years after ChatGPT, ruling out effects larger than 2%.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Estimate
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with qualifiers: scope
Verification state: Checked against the primary source. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: Global aggregate null; no hiring effect; no task or occupational change
Limitations: Denmark; selected exposed occupations; self-reported adoption/use; pre-agentic horizon
Source (as cited): Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026
Source type: Working paper (recorded as “Academic working paper”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity of the evidence: Rapidly maturing evidence
Recorded date: 25 September 2026
Currentness / correction: This is not the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026 (Working paper)
Read the original

Version

This page shows version v1.0. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

NEWER VERSION EXISTS: read the current version, v1.1 (LD02-HQ-C02--v1.1). This version is explicitly superseded by LD02-HQ-C02--v1.1.

Versions: v1.0, v1.1 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (SCOPE) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH SCOPE QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): WORKING_PAPER
Maturity (coded): RAPIDLY_MATURING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD02-HQ-C02	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	In 11 AI-exposed Danish occupations, Humlum and Vestergaard estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours two years after ChatGPT, ruling out effects larger than 2%.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	E — Wages, hours, employment and transitions	—
5	MATURITY	RAPIDLY MATURING	states: RAPIDLY_MATURING
6	SOURCE	Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026	source_ids: SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777
7	SOURCE TYPE	Academic working paper	classes: WORKING_PAPER
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	Denmark; 11 AI-exposed occupations; roughly two-year post-ChatGPT horizon	—
10	DESIGN	Adoption surveys linked to administrative labour records; difference-in-differences	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Approximately 25,000 workers / 7,000 workplaces linked to Danish administrative records	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	ChatGPT and workplace chatbots, including in-house systems	—
13	COMPARATOR	Adopters/users vs relevant non-adopters/non-users under study design	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Earnings and recorded-hours effects are close to zero; effects larger than 2% are ruled out over the study horizon; tasks nevertheless reorganise	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Short-run incumbent earnings/hours effect	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Global aggregate null; no hiring effect; no task or occupational change	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Denmark; selected exposed occupations; self-reported adoption/use; pre-agentic horizon	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Consistent with broad short-run nulls; Nationalbank 2026 shows different firm-hiring estimand	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Denmark / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Early-career earnings/hours null also reported; occupational transitions occur	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D2, L-A, L-B, L-C, R-1	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Later waves showing material divergence in earnings/hours	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH SCOPE QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: SCOPE
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D2 (DOMAIN); L-A (LENS); L-B (LENS); L-C (LENS); R-1 (LENS)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026” → Humlum & Vestergaard (2026), “Still Waters, Rapid Currents” (SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0) — Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, September 25). In 11 AI-exposed Danish occupations, Humlum and Vestergaard estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours two years after ChatGPT, ruling out effects larger than 2% [Claim LD02-HQ-C02, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld02-hq-c02/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld02_hq_c02_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {In 11 AI-exposed Danish occupations, Humlum and Vestergaard estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours two years after ChatGPT, ruling out effects larger than 2\%.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-09-25},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld02-hq-c02/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD02-HQ-C02, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 299d7de3e6a1be4bf93fbf331cfdbacce407e2866f29a76cbed32a6046bcafbd.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1y7Iid5SaEnjKaPZ7ZsSSVj8dASVlSF8b; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 02 — LD02-HQ-C02” SHA-256 906dfd3b32f870bbedb6db2115bddc141378c9db26f91858cc0e29a1d8f44d8d; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r05-ld02-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the locked R05 canonical ledger v1.0; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 1 authorizes completion of its existing canonical claim corpus. This is the first materialized version of this logical Claim, not a research update.
CURRENT_POINTER = false — basis: not current: superseded by LD02-HQ-C02--v1.1 (manifest supersedes relation)
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 02 — LD02-HQ-C02 cites "Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026"; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5: this exact frozen field-6 citation segment selects SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 under ruling 4; identity established by B1 lines 30–70 and the pinned R05 ledger fields 6/7/8.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 — basis: HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5 / Publication System Amendment v1.2 §§4,6: explicit version-pinned public provenance selection of SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 for LD02-HQ-C02--v1.0. Preserve the canonical qualification and independently authorized Source metadata.