urn:uuid:e7e77dbd-b61a-5441-bba3-f0a00c40e885SocioLens — RO-LD11-02: How large is open-weight model use beyond a single routing platform?New versions of this research opportunity and changes to the claims it rests on.2026-10-13T00:00:00ZSocioLensurn:uuid:ed438383-06c2-5a93-99ac-519c1febda04Claim LD11-HQ-C14 revised to v1.12026-10-13T00:00:00ZWhat changed: The claim now reports, beside the OpenRouter/a16z figure, the lower open-source token share that Demirer, Fradkin, Tadelis & Peng (NBER Working Paper 34608, December 2025) report from OpenRouter data, and cites that paper as a second source. The OpenRouter/a16z figure is unchanged.
Why: A literature check on 13 October 2026 found a second analysis of the same platform, by academic authors with Microsoft and Amazon affiliations, that reports about 25% open-source share by December 2025, not about one-third. Version 1.0 cited only the platform's own report, so a reader could take one-third as settled. The figures were read from the NBER paper by AI agents, not by a person, to the same standard as the rest of this ledger (primary-text reading by AI, no named human expert).urn:uuid:140a131a-fd25-5ce0-97af-2d860f5ca643Research opportunity revised to v2: RO-LD11-02 — How large is open-weight model use beyond a single routing platform?2026-10-13T00:00:00ZLiterature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The question and verdict stand.urn:uuid:3ba8639f-f105-59d0-abb6-3c0433d4308dNew research opportunity: RO-LD11-02 — How large is open-weight model use beyond a single routing platform?2026-10-12T00:00:00ZHow does the open-weight share of language-model use estimated from OpenRouter compare with shares estimated from other observable sources (other inference marketplaces and hosts, model downloads, self-hosting tool registries, and a survey of organisations' production deployments), and which population does each source actually represent?