urn:uuid:c37e45ea-f693-5de0-ae31-ac3d6cbf145b New versions of this research opportunity and changes to the claims it rests on. 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z SocioLens urn:uuid:d3f7d835-fdba-5de5-91d0-f9667ff8f8e7 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z

What changed: The distributional ledger no longer says that an early-career earnings and hours null is reported. It now gives what the March 2026 revision of the paper reports for early-career workers (aged 22–25): their employment fell in several of the occupations, but their share of employment did not change differentially at workplaces that encourage chatbot use, with effects above about a third of a percentage point ruled out. The contradictory/supporting field now also notes the paper's workplace-level nulls for employment (total hours), job churn and the early-career share, and that Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper 223 finds lower employment growth at AI-adopting firms. The public-facing claim, the 2% bound, the 11 occupations and the sample of about 25,000 workers in 7,000 workplaces are unchanged. Why: A recheck on 14 October 2026 read the full text of NBER Working Paper 33777 as revised in March 2026 (retitled "Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI"; previously "Large Language Models, Small Labor Market Effects"). Version 1.0 was built from the paper's abstract, and the HQ batch notes left "full Humlum/Vestergaard early-career ... details" open. The full text reports early-career results only as the employment share at adopting workplaces (Section 3.4, footnote 21), not as earnings or hours, and the same section reports no differential change in workplace employment (total hours) or job churn. The main result is confirmed in the full text: confidence intervals rule out average earnings and hours effects larger than 2% two years after ChatGPT, in 11 occupations, with 25,000 workers across 7,000 workplaces in the late-2024 survey round. The recheck and this revision were done by an AI agent reading the paper, not by a person.

urn:uuid:e0875ce1-d26c-59ca-a728-da9d5d6efe5f 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z

The note on the nearest Danish work now says that its March 2026 revision (NBER w33777, retitled "Still Waters, Rapid Currents") no longer reports the 3–7% pass-through estimate the May 2025 version gave, and reports adopters' self-perceived earnings effects of 0 to 0.5% instead. Found when LD-02 was rechecked against the revised paper. The question, design, literature check and verdict are unchanged.

urn:uuid:89920c00-b089-5012-a352-fe1e7374b974 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Literature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The question and verdict stand.

urn:uuid:6c8d5fc5-cbd1-5f82-a8cf-a75fbb5c3e00 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

When a firm starts using generative AI, how much does its value added per worker change over the following two to three years, and what share of that change shows up in the wages of incumbent workers who stay, compared with profits and with the wages of new hires?